2020 midyear update: Forecasting amid the coronavirus
23 July 2020 | Markets and Economy
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the sharpest and deepest short-term economic contraction in modern economic history. Even as some countries succeed in controlling the outbreak, the case count continues to grow globally. The twin crises of health and economics are far from over.
Our mid-year update in brief:
- The Covid-19 shock: Our baseline forecast sees a gradual return to work and no major flare-ups to warrant renewed nationwide restrictions. Risks to our forecast are skewed to the downside—a scenario of further waves of the virus and reinstated lockdowns that would be harmful to economic recovery.
- The path to economic recovery: As virus containment measures ease, and barring outbreaks necessitating widespread renewal of restrictions, we expect an initial recovery of economic activity as productive potential is brought back on stream. Vanguard foresees a slow recovery thereafter, with consumers likely reluctant to resume face-to-face interactions until a vaccine is developed.
- The financial markets:Our outlook for equity returns has improved compared with our expectations at the end of 2019 amid lower valuations and interest rates, but our outlook for fixed income returns remains muted. Elevated uncertainty persists, with further market corrections possible. We advise investors to focus on long-term expected returns, embrace global diversification, and avoid the temptation to time turbulent markets.
Read more about our global economic outlook, inflation, monetary policy and the implications for investors:
Q&A with Vanguard's global economics team
Important risk information:
The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested.
Other important information:
For professional investors only (as defined under the MiFID II Directive) investing for their own account (including management companies (fund of funds) and professional clients investing on behalf of their discretionary clients). Not to be distributed to the public.
The information contained in this document is not to be regarded as an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of any offer to buy or sell securities in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law, or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation, or if the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so. The information in this document does not constitute legal, tax, or investment advice. You must not, therefore, rely on the content of this document when making any investment decisions.
Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Switzerland, issued by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.