Vanguard economic and market update

30 October 2019 | Markets and Economy


 Vanguard economic and market update

Vanguard's key points:

  • Vanguard now sees US economic growth of around 1% in 2020, significantly lower than the current trend. Growth forecasts have also been lowered marginally for the euro area and the UK.
  • We now expect at least two further cuts in US interest rates, with at least one cut likely in 2019.
  • Vanguard now sees a higher risk of a US recession in 2020. However, our baseline view is that any recession would be shallow, with real economic growth of 0.5%–1.5% next year.
  • Predicting recessions is hard; timing the market is harder. Vanguard advises investors to create long term plans to withstand the market's ups and downs.


Investment risk information:

The value of investments, and the income from them, may fall or rise and investors may get back less than they invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Other important information:

This material is for professional investors as defined under the MiFID II Directive only. In Switzerland for institutional investors only. Not for public distribution.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell investments.

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and individuals quoted and may not be representative of Vanguard Asset Management, Ltd or Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.

Issued by Vanguard Asset Management, Ltd, which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. In Switzerland, issued by Vanguard Investments Switzerland GmbH.